Historically speaking, home sales typically slow down in the fall following the spring and summer rush. BTIG, a research and analysis company, looked at new home sales from 1963-2019 and noted an average decline of -9.8% in November compared to October.
In that same report, they noticed that this decline becomes slightly more exaggerated in presidential election years, dropping as much as -15% from October to November.
So, why the decline? BTIG attributes it mostly to do with buyers and sellers just becoming more cautious during that time.
They go on to explain, “This caution is temporary, and ultimately results in deferred sales, as the economy, jobs, interest rates and consumer confidence all have far more meaningful roles in the home purchase decision than a Presidential election result in the months that follow.”
Considering the current state of real estate across the country, we can anticipate that while a slow down may occur, its effects will only be temporary. Home sales have remained strong throughout the last couple of winters, and the competitive nature of today’s current market suggests this year should be no different.